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2025年世界將發生什么……
2013-06-06 14:21:06 作者:郎咸平 瀏覽次數:27784

兩極冰川融化明確地反映了氣候變暖現象。根據2004年發布的一份報告顯示,極地氣候在未來?十年的上升速度將是其他地區的兩倍。自1978年以來,地球 海洋冰川面積以每十年8%的速度減少。也有人認為,不排除在21世紀下半葉極地冰蓋將可能徹底消失。北極以及其他冰川地區(尤其是格陵蘭島)的氣候變暖將 帶來極為嚴重的后果,如生物種類的顯著改變、水平面上升以及大西洋地區氣候的巨大變化。由于冰川融化造成的北大西洋海水淡化,將減緩寒流與暖流的交換速 度,并減弱灣流的影響。根據最近的研究顯示,灣流的影響自20世紀中期以來已降低了30%。氣候變化專門委員會預測,大西洋的寒暖流交換速度到2100年 將減弱約25%。當然,這一現象可能造?的后果還有待研究,不過灣流影響力的改變則可能使美國和西歐的氣候變冷。至于這些結果何時、將有多大可能性發生還 不得而知。

2007年至2025年期間,海平面上升速度將得到控制。自20世紀90年代以來,全球海平面以每年0.3毫米的速度上升,這主要是由海洋吸熱(海洋 吸收了80%的熱量,并影響到3 000米以下的區域)和冰川融化引起的。同時,水平面上升還可能造成沿海地區和含水層的鹽堿化,這將嚴重影響大量人口密集地區的農業產量,尤其是三角洲地 區(如尼羅河和尼日爾三角洲地區)。

由于人口和農業的過快增長,發展中國家的淡水消耗量將飛速增長。目前全世界有超過10億人無法獲得足夠的飲用水,而土壤枯竭、污染和沙漠化將使可利用 的資源進一步減少。淡水資源的匱乏在干旱和半干旱地區表現得更為明顯,到2030年,這些地區約有90%的可用資源將被用于農業。根據聯合國的預測,“到 2025年將有超過28億人生活在水資源貧乏的國家或地區”,水資源將以平均每年每人1 700立方米的速度減少。而在北非和中東一些人口密集的國家,水資源甚至無法達到平均水平的一半。當然,改善資源管理模式和分配方法將有助于減少浪費,尤 其是在發展中國家。

 

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