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不確定性的表現
2015-06-11 09:48:06 作者:廖石頭 瀏覽次數:228

不確定性表現在四個方面:

1.技術不確定性。一是創新者在新技術選擇及其水平評估上的模糊和困難,二是企業現有技術水平狀態和創新技術間可能存在多種矛盾沖突,三是由于技術不斷飛速發展,使創新活動在進行中就可能發生技術水平的貶值。

2.經濟不確定性。有許多不可預測的突發因素或漏測因素,使企業在資源投入上超預算、新產品投入市場時間滯后,企業最終實現收益呈離散型概率分布。

3.組織不確定性。新產品的試制及生產必然引起企業內部組織狀態變動,其作用及影響難以事先完全預料,對企業文化的影響、企業內部利益分配格同變化導致各種復雜因素的干擾等。

4.策略的不確定性。與以上三項不確定性相聯系,企業在策略上有更大的不確定性,對競爭狀況、用戶特點、行業特點等方面掌握的信息下多,因而在選定產品、市場、服務等方面在策略上有很大余地,在很大程度上要依賴于經營者主觀上的機智善斷,使企業戰略帶有相當程度的短期隨機應變的性質。

3.風險性

守舊有被淘汰的風險,而創新則有可能受挫失敗的風險,所謂風險性是指企業在信息約束和多種因素突變干擾下,使實際結果和預測發生背離而導致收益損失的可能性。風險具有四個特征:

2.風險是客觀存在的,無法回避和消除;

3.風險是相對的、變化的,不同的對象風險不同;

4.風險是可以預測的;

5.風險伴隨著損失和收益。

如美國高技術企業完全失敗的占20—30%,經受挫折后可獲得一定程度成功的企業占60—70%,獲得完全成功、取得顯著效益的只占5%左右。美國每年建立高技術企業約50萬家,其中3/4在四、五年內很快破產,只有1/4的企業在競爭及新技開發中艱難曲折地生長起來。

企業技術創新活動是否一定比常規性活動具有更大的風險,根據發達國家企業的大量創新活動實例統計分析,所得結論出乎人們的常規推理,即在現代市場激烈競爭的條件下,勇于和善于創新的企業至少并不比保守型企業冒更大的風險。因為一方面除外部因素外,創新風險是企業具體狀態所決定的變數,面臨風險,企業本身可以大有作為。另一方面,創新固然有受挫失敗的風險,但守舊卻冒著在競爭中完全被淘汰的更大風險。真正的企業家認識到:創新雖有風險但有希望,守舊必有風險且無希望。


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